Discover the Best Freight Broker TMS for 2026: Unlock Growth Opportunities!

After two years of a grinding freight recession, the data has shifted. Carrier capacity is exiting faster than demand is falling, spot rates have surged to levels not seen since early 2023, and the industry's most-watched leading indicators are flashing the clearest tightening signal since the post-pandemic boom. For small and midsize freight brokerages, the setup entering 2026 is structurally different from anything in the past three years—and the brokers who recognize the inflection now will be the ones who capture outsized margin when the market fully turns.

Key Takeaways for Freight Brokers

• U.S. Bank's Q4 2025 Freight Payment Index shows shipper spending up 5.2% year-over-year—the first YoY increase in three years—while volumes rose just 1.5%, confirming that tightening capacity, not demand, is driving rate increases.

• C.H. Robinson raised its 2026 dry van rate forecast from +6% to +8% year-over-year in January 2026, with the bulk of the increase weighted toward H2 as capacity contraction accelerates.

• SONAR's Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) hit 13.42% during the holiday peak—well above the 7-8% threshold FreightWaves considers inflationary—and remains 70 basis points above year-ago levels even after seasonal pullback.

• The industry is losing more than 350 carriers per week on a net basis, a pace of attrition never previously recorded, driven by operating costs up 34% since 2014 while rates remain near 2014 levels.

• RXO flagged carrier capacity as "more fragile than at any point over the past two years" and warned of the potential for the "biggest structural change to the U.S. carrier market since deregulation in 1980."

• Brokerages that lock in carrier relationships, tighten their operational workflows, and invest in capacity visibility now—before the H2 2026 inflection—will have the strongest positioning when routing guides start failing at scale.

Who This Is For

Ideal reader:

• U.S. freight brokerages with 1-50 employees

• Teams managing spot or mixed spot/contract freight

• Brokers who survived the 2023-2025 downturn and want to capitalize on the recovery

• Operations handling carrier sourcing manually or in spreadsheets

Who can skip this:

• Asset-based carriers without brokerage operations

• Large enterprise brokerages with dedicated market intelligence teams

• Companies not operating in the U.S. truckload market

What Changed: The Supply-Side Squeeze Is Real

The freight market's trajectory shifted in late 2025—not because demand surged, but because capacity finally broke. After more than two years of sub-economic rates, the supply side of the truckload market is contracting at a historically unprecedented pace.

Carrier Exits Are Accelerating

According to FMCSA data tracked by FreightWaves, the industry has sustained a two-year average of more than 350 net carrier exits per week. This is not a seasonal pattern or a temporary correction. It represents structural capacity loss driven by three compounding forces:

• Margin exhaustion. The American Transportation Research Institute's annual survey shows truckload operating costs increased nearly 4% in 2024 alone, layered on top of a three-year operating cost inflation stack of 25%. Meanwhile, rates remained near 2014 levels for much of 2025. Carriers simply cannot absorb this gap indefinitely.

• Regulatory enforcement. FMCSA's crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs, English-language proficiency enforcement, and the broader driver legitimacy push are removing carriers and drivers from the market. The Driver Legitimacy Summit convening in Atlanta on February 5-6 underscores how seriously the industry is treating this issue.

• Equipment economics. Class 8 truck orders remain below typical replacement levels, and tariff-driven cost increases could raise the price of a new truck by up to $35,000—putting new equipment out of reach for small carriers already operating on razor-thin margins.

FTR Transportation Intelligence estimates that for-hire capacity is now close to the lowest level it can reach without triggering widespread carrier failures. RXO's Q3 2025 analysis described the capacity environment as "more fragile than at any point over the past two years."

The Data Confirms the Turn

The numbers tell a consistent story across multiple independent data sources:

FreightWaves SONAR: The National Truckload Index rose from under $1.75/mile to nearly $2.00/mile between mid-November and mid-December 2025. The spot-to-contract rate spread narrowed from approximately $0.60/mile to $0.40/mile—a classic leading indicator that contract rates will follow spot rates higher.

SONAR OTRI: Tender rejections peaked at 13.42% during the holiday period. For context, FreightWaves analysts consider 7-8% inflationary for spot rates; 13% signals serious problems with carrier contract compliance and shipper routing guide integrity. Even after the seasonal pullback to 5.76% in early February, the OTRI remains 70 basis points above the prior year—the narrowest year-over-year gap since early October 2025.

U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index: Q4 2025 showed shipper spending up 4.6% quarter-over-quarter and 5.2% year-over-year—the first positive YoY comparison in three years. Average diesel prices were actually 5.2 cents per gallon lower than Q3, meaning the spending increase was entirely driven by higher line-haul rates, not fuel surcharges.

C.H. Robinson: In their January 2026 market update, Robinson raised the 2026 dry van truckload rate forecast from +6% to +8% year-over-year. Route guide depth—a measure of how many carriers shippers must contact before getting a truck—increased to 1.33 in December, with long-haul routes (600+ miles) hitting 1.52. The Northeast saw the sharpest deterioration at 16.9%.

Why This Matters for Brokers

This market setup represents the first meaningful opportunity for broker margin expansion since the 2020-2021 freight boom. Here's why small and midsize brokerages are positioned to benefit disproportionately.

Spot-to-Contract Spread Compression Creates Margin Opportunity

When spot rates rise toward contract rates—as the narrowing spread from $0.60 to $0.40 per mile signals—it means contract rates have not yet adjusted to reflect tighter capacity. Brokers who can source capacity efficiently on the spot market and serve shippers whose contract carriers are failing them (as route guide depth increases) capture the spread.

This is the classic broker growth window: shippers start falling off their primary carriers, waterfall through their routing guide, and end up calling brokers who can actually cover loads. The brokers who have carrier relationships, market visibility, and fast execution win this business.

Small Carrier Exits Benefit Broker Networks

As independent owner-operators and small fleets exit, the remaining carrier base consolidates toward mid-size and larger fleets. But these larger carriers are selective about which brokers they work with. Brokerages that maintained carrier relationships through the downturn—paying promptly, providing consistent freight, and not squeezing rates to unsustainable levels—will have preferred access to the capacity that remains.

Rate Recovery Is Not a Boom—It's a Grind

This is not 2021. C.H. Robinson projects 8% dry van rate growth, not 30%. FTR forecasts 3.6% overall growth. The opportunity is real but measured. Brokers who over-leverage expecting a dramatic spike will be disappointed. The winners will be operationally efficient brokerages that can handle more loads per head, maintain carrier compliance, and scale without proportionally scaling headcount.

What Brokers Should Do Now

The window between now and mid-2026 is preparation time. Here's what to prioritize.

1. Rebuild and Deepen Carrier Relationships

Capacity that's easy to find today will not be easy to find in six months. Identify your top 50 carriers by lane and volume. Reach out now, lock in relationships, and ensure your payment terms and communication are competitive. Carriers remember who treated them fairly during the downturn.

2. Tighten Carrier Vetting and Compliance

Regulatory enforcement is one of the primary drivers of capacity exit. Brokers who let compliance slip during the downturn—using carriers with questionable authority, lapsed insurance, or safety violations—face growing risk as FMCSA enforcement intensifies. Audit your active carrier base now.

3. Invest in Operational Speed

When routing guides fail and shippers call brokers, the broker who responds in minutes wins. The broker who responds in hours loses. Review your load-to-cover workflow. How many manual steps exist between receiving a load request and having a carrier confirmed? Every unnecessary step is lost revenue in a tightening market.

4. Build Lane-Level Market Intelligence

Not every lane is tightening at the same rate. SONAR data shows markets like Chicago (9.51% rejection rate) and Harrisburg (9.45%) are significantly tighter than Los Angeles (4.33%). Brokers who understand lane-level dynamics can price more accurately and prioritize capacity in the lanes where margin expansion is greatest.

5. Prepare for Contract Season

With C.H. Robinson projecting rate troughs around April-May before an H2 acceleration, the upcoming contract bid season is the last opportunity to lock in favorable terms before the market moves. Brokerages with clean data on their lane performance, carrier reliability, and cost-per-load are better positioned to win shipper contracts at rates that reflect the direction of the market, not its bottom.

How Modern Brokerages Handle Market Transitions

Market transitions reward operational discipline, not size. The brokerages that scale during a rate recovery are the ones that can onboard carriers fast, track compliance without manual spreadsheets, cover loads in minutes instead of hours, and give their teams lane-level visibility into where capacity is tight.

Modern brokerages centralize carrier management, load execution, and compliance tracking in a single TMS to reduce operational drag during exactly these inflection points. Systems like ARK TMS are designed for small teams (1-25 users) that need speed, compliance visibility, and low overhead without enterprise complexity—the kind of operational foundation that turns a market recovery into a growth opportunity rather than a scramble.

Top Transportation Management Software (TMS) Options for Freight Brokers

This section outlines leading TMS solutions available to freight brokers, including key features and benefits.

1. ARK TMS

Designed for small teams, it offers speed and compliance visibility.

2. McLeod PowerBroker

Enterprise-grade rating and accounting workflows for larger brokerages with complex operational requirements.

3. Tai TMS

Modern workflow automation for broker operations teams looking to reduce repetitive manual processes.

4. Rose Rocket

Cloud-native brokerage and fleet orchestration with broad integration support and collaborative visibility.

5. Revenova

Salesforce-native TMS configuration for teams that want CRM and TMS data aligned in one ecosystem.

What This Means Going Forward

The freight market is not recovering overnight, but it is recovering. The structural forces driving this recovery—carrier exits, regulatory tightening, equipment cost inflation, and operating cost pressure—are not cyclical. They are cumulative and accelerating.

ACT Research expects supply-demand balance to improve gradually through 2026, with a more durable rate recovery increasingly likely in the second half of the year. C.H. Robinson's upgraded forecast to +8% YoY confirms the trajectory. And the U.S. Bank data showing the first positive spending comparison in three years suggests the inflection is already underway.

For freight brokers, the question is not whether rates will rise. The question is whether your operation is ready to capture the opportunity when they do.

Frequently Asked Questions

What features should I look for in a TMS?

Focus on speed-to-cover tools, carrier compliance visibility, lane-level market intelligence, and automation that reduces manual data entry across your load lifecycle.

How can a TMS improve my brokerage operations?

A modern TMS helps brokerages respond faster, cover more loads per rep, reduce compliance risk, and protect margins as rates tighten and routing guides begin failing at scale.